9 golden rules to prepare for your retirement.

9 golden rules to prepare for your retirement

Family with children Do not wait to think about your retirement. The ideal is to think about it at 40 years old. Twenty years are needed to build a worthy capital with a reasonable savings effort.

To complete your pension, consider saving young. Then adjust your strategy according to your personal situation.

1) Take control of your future

It's never too late to worry about retirement. The ideal is to think about it at 40 years old. Twenty years are needed to build a worthy capital with a reasonable savings effort. Learn about what you will really get. This is the first step.

There are huge disparities between professions. With a replacement rate (ratio between the estimated retirement and the amount of the last income) close to 75%, civil servants who retire in 2016 or 2017 do not have to worry too much.

On the other hand, surgeons, architects and lawyers (around 30%) have an interest in putting money aside for their old age. If possible, avoid leaving with a haircut. Extending one's career to benefit from the full rate is more optimal.

Income Tips: For your retirement, the first step is to save. The younger you start, the less effort you have to make. Then think about adjusting your wealth strategy according to the situation and your personal situation.

retirement, retirement plan, private retirement plan, pension plan

2) Own your home In times of uncertainty, owning one's home is reassuring: 58% of households own their main home, compared to 33% in 1953. Even though prices have risen since 2000, buying a home is a good reflex. To repay a loan helps to build wealth, because the monthly payments include a share of interest, but also capital.

When you retire, you save the amount of rent, which increases your purchasing power. The housing budget is "limited" to maintenance costs and local taxes. Be careful not to get into debt too much. Monthly payments must not exceed one third of your income.

• Revenue Tips: Buying a home is a strong commitment. For a young couple, it is often the first important heritage decision. Experts encourage their clients to invest in rental or leisure real estate before acquiring their principal residence. This is not the speech of Revenue. After considering the heritage of many readers, we affirm that, with some exceptions, the most successful ones are those who invest young in stone. To go off the beaten track is good. But you have to know how to stay classic.

3) Think about diversifying your heritage

The best way to prepare for retirement is to build a diversified wealth. Too many savers practice a naive diversification. Spread your life insurance in four or five funds invested in French securities is not enough. Because their performances are likely to be very linked and your contract finally not very diversified.

• Income Tips: At age 45, whatever your risk aversion, hold, depending on your means, rental real estate, stocks, bonds and money market products. As you approach retirement, you can only be a winner because these investment families do not perform well or badly at the same time.

4) Invest in life insurance

An investment that responds to a long-term logic. Premiums paid are capitalized over the years based on realized profits. Your savings remain available. Even if it is preferable, in tax terms, not to withdraw from your contract before eight years.

An investment that escapes tax increases. Life insurance is, with the PEE and the PEA, the big winner of the last tax turmoil. Even if it suffered, like all financial products, the increase in social security contributions to 15.5%. Feed your contracts according to your means and your personal goals.

Trophées d'Or du Revenu contracts are well suited to preparing for retirement. Flexible, with funds profitable in the long term, they will give you satisfaction if you adopt a strategy corresponding to your situation and your real needs.

• TipsIncome: No other investment offers so many assets or freedom. You choose your level of risk and the terms of exit (withdrawal or annuity). On the fiscal side, the benefits continue, for the most part: earnings remain exempt from tax (conditional) and the capital of inheritance tax, up to 152,500 euros per beneficiary.

5) Do not forget rental real estate

The share of households owning a dwelling that is not their main residence (second home or rental investment) is 18.5%: 80% of them own their homes.

The purchase of a home for rent is financed for all or part on credit. By investing at age 45, you will have paid back the bank fifteen years later and the rents will then complete your retirement.

Prefer old to new, 20 to 25% cheaper, for rents roughly identical. The rental profitability (annual rent / purchase price) is therefore better. Especially, if you buy a property to renovate. Because you save on the initial investment and the cost of the work is deductible, in terms of tax, rents cashed. Better, if your expenses exceed your property income, the difference is deductible from your global income up to 10,700 euros per year. Optimize your financing. Credits in fine should be avoided, except for taxpayers taxed at higher levels.

• Revenue Tips: Buying apartments on credit or, better, houses if you can afford them, renting them out is a great asset strategy. Completing your retirement with one or two rents is interesting. The more you invest in your real estate operations, the more money you will earn. Notice to the DIYers!

6) Explore the trail of retirement products

Perp. The tax deduction at the entrance to the popular retirement savings plan (Perp) to taxpayers, taxed at 30, 41 or 45% that can, by this means, "tax free" part of their taxable income.

Perco. For employees. It saves money in an attractive tax environment because earnings are exempt from income tax, but no social security contributions. A good supplement to life insurance and the PEA if the proposed funds are efficient and if the company abounds your payments.

Madelin. Supplementary retirement scheme reserved for the self-employed, the liberal professions and tradesmen. Asset advantage: you benefit at the entrance of a tax benefit proportional to the amount of your payments. Failure to invest: you can not get your money back before retirement, except in limited circumstances; the exit is in the form of annuity. In conclusion, study this placement closely, according to your personal situation and the characteristics of the proposed product.

• Revenue Tips: You need to know what you are getting into. The Perp and Madelin contracts are "tunnel" investments. They are characterized by the unavailability of savings until retirement. There are cases of exceptional withdrawals (different depending on the products). Another limit: your capital can be paid back only in the form of an annuity (except exception).

7) Secure your assets after 65 years

It is important to reduce risks, both in terms of capital and income. It is also necessary to ensure the liquidity of the assets, their availability and to adapt the flows to fixed expenses.

Keep your principal residence, possibly your second home, that is to say the living environment, and sell the assets to which you are little attached. This results in fewer management concerns and lower expenses. You can invest in real estate via SCPI, to ensure regular income by pooling risks.

Get regular income through life insurance by implementing scheduled partial surrenders, subject to an attractive tax regime. "There is no age limit for life insurance," says Charles Meunier, wealth manager near Lyon, author of a study on the main principles of wealth management of the elderly. The important thing is not to subscribe for purely fiscal reasons. The insurance must be random.

• Revenue Tips: Notaries note that many people in their 60s tend to lose their strength too quickly. Find the right balance between the need to keep assets to live well and the legitimate desire to help your children and reduce future inheritance taxes by making donations during your lifetime.

8) Convert a capital into an annuity

Specificity of life annuities. You have a guaranteed income for life without having to worry about managing your savings. The fear of missing disappears. Because rent can not fall except in purchasing power because of inflation.

The life annuity is most often made out of necessity after using the other solutions intended to procure rEvenus. There are various methods of implementing the life annuity: part of the price can be paid in cash, the rest in the form of annuity; it is also possible to convert the entire price into an annuity.

The conversion of a capital into a life annuity. The capital is alienated from an insurer who, in return, pays you a life annuity. To compensate for the impossibility of recovering your money, companies have designed specific contracts that need to be scrutinized. Contracts provide, in the event of death in the first years, to pay a capital sum to the designated beneficiaries.

• Revenue Tips: Retaining your capital gives you more independence and allows you to accumulate withdrawals and interest. But after 75 years, people with modest heritage, without children, can study the opportunity of giving up part of their savings in favor of a very reassuring life annuity. Pay attention to the charges taken by the insurer. Also examine the revaluation of the rent. It depends on technical parameters. It may be attractive to have a lower annuity initially, but which will revaluate better later.

9) Protect yourself against addiction

France is aging. The loss of autonomy concerns 2.7% of the population aged 60 to 79 years. Between the ages of 80 and 84, this rate rises to 14.3%. According to INSEE projections, the number of dependent persons is estimated in 2030 between 1.4 (low hypothesis) and 1.7 million (high hypothesis). The progression should accelerate with the arrival at the age of the "baby-boomers".

The cost of the loss of autonomy. The assistance of a third person or the transfer to a suitable structure can cost more than 4,000 euros per month, much more than the average amount of pensions in France (1,300 euros gross).

Tap into his savings. This is the simplest step. But "many addicts are reluctant to do so having the impression of squandering the fruit of their work," says Charles Meunier, manager heritage near Lyon.

• Revenue Tips: If your wealth does not allow you to finance such an expense, consider insuring yourself against this risk. Privilege contracts that cover total and partial dependence in order to benefit from an annuity at the first signs of loss of autonomy. For a monthly pension of 1,000 euros, count 55 to 85 euros premium per month if you start contributing to 60 years.

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RULES TO KNOW BEFORE INVESTING IN STOCK

RULES TO KNOW BEFORE INVESTING IN STOCK

Putting your money on the stock market is like buying and selling financial products on the stock markets. It is important for an individual to determine their investor profile and financial goals before investing. He must determine the degree of risk he is willing to take with his financial investment and its duration.

Definition

Investing in the stock market means buying or selling securities on the financial markets. This investment makes it possible to:

• receive income: an individual may receive dividends that represent a portion of the company's profits if he buys shares. It may also receive bond coupons that represent an interest payment, bonds being loans made by investors to issuers.

• profit from capital gains: an investor profits if he sells more expensive a security than he bought it because of the evolution of the price of the security on the market.

Basic rules

1 - Invest savings that we do not need.

Given the risk involved, the individual must invest in the stock market only the portion of his savings that can happen and that, in case of loss, will not lower his standard of living. It is important that investors do not use the savings they may need for their daily life projects.

2 - Know Before Investing

It is important to learn about financial products before investing. It is a question of knowing on the one hand on the type of product (actions, obligations, derivatives), its mechanisms and the risks which it involves, and on the other hand on the issuer, whose financial health and the outlook will affect the price and risk of the securities he has issued.

Individuals may use a licensed professional who will provide advice that is appropriate to their situation and goals.

Investors who decide to choose the securities they invest on without assistance may also find general information about financial products from financial intermediaries and directly from the issuer of the securities. Issuers are required to report their financial information to the public on a regular basis: quarterly, half-yearly, annual, announcement in the event of a merger, etc. Information will be more complete, frequent and accessible on stocks that are listed on a regulated market. Conversely, non-regulated markets such as multilateral trading systems are less protective of investors.

It is also advisable to regularly monitor economic and stock market information via the financial press or the stock market websites.

3 - Define an investment strategy

It is advisable to define an investment strategy before investing. The simplest is to set a goal of gain and a floor of maximum loss, and this according to your investor profile.

It is also necessary to define an investment period that corresponds to an investment horizon.

4 - Diversify your portfolio

Portfolio diversification distributes the capital invested in a balanced way. Thus, the decline of a single value will have less impact on your entire portfolio.

It is important to determine the distribution of different investments between stocks, bonds, derivatives, etc. Investors can also allocate their portfolio to stocks from different economic sectors.

This diversification of the portfolio will be based on the risk profile of the investor.

5 - Monitor your portfolio regularly

Markets may experience large stock market fluctuations, which is why it is important to regularly monitor your portfolio, especially if the investor is positioned on leveraged products that require special vigilance.

6 - Know how to take profits and cut off losing positions

The investor must define what are his objectives of gains and losses before investing in the stock market. So you have to be rigorous if the earnings targets are met and think about taking profits.

Similarly, if the threshold of losses acceptable to the investor set in advance is reached, you must know how to take these losses. It should be kept in mind that some investments may result in a total loss of invested capital hence the importance of meeting the threshold.

Even if it remains difficult, cutting its losing positions remains an effective way to avoid even greater losses and maintain control over its investments.

Risks and precautions

Risks are associated with all forms of investments. It is advisable to be well informed and to know how the fina products work.

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Here's why you do not make any money online.

Here's why you do not make money online.

Reasons can be numerous and probably are.

You have been working hard online and you still do not know why you do not make money?

Let spread reality in front of your eyes.

You sign up for many programs thinking that you should not put all your eggs in the same basket.

You probably use a cell phone thinking that clicking a few links on an application will make you millions in no time.

You are convinced that you will make money fast and easy online.

WAKE UP!

Do a reality check on yourself. Are you naive?

Keep reading attentively because I decided this morning to come out of the shadow and tell you the truth.

I am a retired software engineer, 62 years old and made fortune online from 1988.

Internet was then just a cloudy project. People had to compose a phone number on their 8 bits modem to reach a server that would connect them to the internet which was very limited to certain cities. BUT I was there! I was already selling web exposure to Hotels, restaurants etc.

In 1992 I reached my first million dollar of internet income. I always kept doing that for myself, then for my children and now, I am educating my grand children and YOU are next.

Life was not always that easy for me. I started my life digging in the thrash cans of my city to find food. I fought cold nights sleeping under bridges along with other stinking homeless. So, if I could have come from that far, you can certainly do better. I am not any special person.

I understand that life has changed and everyone is trying to get his piece of the pie, but I will get you on track today with this simple posting.

To become very wealthy online, you should not signup for tons of programs and dilute your attention by giving bits of your energy to one then the other and jumping from opportunity to opportunity without patience and consistency.

Everyone does exactly that, and it does not work.

If you want to get rich online, you have to be the head of something, the number 1, the owner or the CEO. All the money or at least part of any transaction has to come directly to you.

Imagine someone coming to you saying: "I am going to build a unique money making website for you for free and you will own it entirely." What would you do? Keep pushing buttons on your keyboard and clicking links on your smart phone for 10 cents a day? Or concentrate of that new business you own?

I think you would concentrate on that particular project. You would tell your family your friends and would promote only that single new project you believe in. Putting all the energy you have on one single project pays a lot more then spreading yourself into bits and pieces.

I am a philanthropist, I like people and I like to help. Me, my children and grand children are now financially secured and the relay is in your hands now.

I have put up a website that does exactly what I just told you. If you want it, it is yours. You are going to be the owner and at the very top of the business. All you have to do to become millionaire in one year is to concentrate on that very project.

Put your mind in CEO mode right now. Real business men who wants to open a grocery store will put a lot of time, energy and money into their project before they sells a first item. Sometimes years. That is why they will succeed, they do not want to loose their investment and they do believe in their project.

Today, I am going to give you an amazing opportunity to become wealthy, but you have to believe you can, believe in yourself and then put some energy to start it all up.

Your personal experience in cyber marketing will help, but I will show you how to use other people energy to raise your business. You will be like a god telling people where to put the money.

I will give you a complete money making website with a nice money making plan plus a full social network hosted for free with a domain name that makes sense.

Imagine, there is 7 billions people waiting for you to show them your business. They will get in if you concentrate and let go the other 10 cents a day apps.

Who made Google or Facebook so rich? You, me, everyone who uses them. When you want to make money, you have to understand that this money is in other people's pocket. You have to offer something they want and need and they will buy. Your product have to interest absolutely everyone, every countries and any age. If they can have the largest part of it for free, that's is good for you. The first step is to get people surrounding you. How do you think Facebook developed ? Mister owner told some friends who told some others... That's all! And now he gets billions per year. That money does not fall from the sky, it comes from people's pocket.

On your website, you will have many possibilities to offer your own products that you will not even have to build.

You will never find an opportunity like this again. It has been designed for people like you, but you have to take it seriously. CONCENTRATE on this one.

Unless you want to stay a loser all your life.

Want to start now?

Get there: https://wepals.net

Thanks

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Why did you allow the election of Donald Trump, an exhaustive analysis.

political rights, finance, banks, surveys, management, administration

Why did you allow the election of Donald Trump?     A real earthquake rocked the United States on November 8, 2016: the US election awarded victory to Republican candidate Donald Trump, foiling all polls that predicted the success of Hillary Clinton. Nearly two years later, this analysis attempts to identify a series of explanatory factors to understand this turning point in American politics and the international economic scene.

Even if Hillary Clinton obtains a higher overall score, the particular electoral system in the United States favors the mandate of high-ranking voters from the various states of the Union. Widely acclaimed in the central regions of the country, the billionaire of New York was able, thanks to that, to beat his rival and become the 45th president of the United States.

Commenting on these results, analysts immediately pointed to the populist speech of the Republican candidate who seduced a mass of employees, usually white, who consider themselves "left behind" globalization. His anti-immigration, protection of the American market, wanting to restore the greatness of the United States have hit the ground in countries where relocations and closures of factories were numerous, thus degrading the living conditions of millions of workers. For her part, Hillary Clinton was accused of representing this openness to foreign competition that destroys jobs and does not bring prosperity to all Americans. She was rightly seen as the spokesperson for the hated establishment of Wall Street 1 and Washington.

The supporters of Donald Trump did not wonder if behind the rhetoric there were no other issues, more obscure and directly related to the interests of the American ruling class. Indeed, here is a man from a wealthy family who acquires his fortune in the New York real estate market, then squanders it in pharaonic projects and finally regains it thanks to the commodification of his name, relayed by a show popular TV show 2 that makes it known across the country. How could this character in search of success in business and the media be the one who would carry the aspirations of millions of citizens left behind by capitalist globalization?

 Financing candidates   Even though the bulk of business and private fund grants to candidates went to Hillary Clinton (as shown in Table 1), Donald Trump also represents the interests of the American elite, but in another way.

Table 1 shows the total payments made to the various contenders for the presidency, including the primaries (in the Democratic and Republican camps).

enter image description here

Table 1. Amounts Received by the Different Candidates for the 2016 US Presidential Election (in dollars)   We see that in this result, Hillary Clinton obtained 43.5% of the sums allotted, while Donald Trump only received 11.5%, barely more than his competitor of the Republican party, Jeb Bush, son of President George HW Bush and Brother George Jr.

If we use the global data of the organization OpenSecrets.org, we realize that the total amount received by the candidates in this election reaches the billion and a half dollars. Hillary Clinton collected 564 million and Trump 333 million 4. The advantage is clearly in the democratic camp.

But if we calculate on all pretenders, we see that payments are much more divided, Republicans pocketing 50.8% of the total against 48.6% for Democrats.

By also detailing these funds by sector, we see that Donald Trump receives more money from agribusiness, the arms industry, gaming and oil. And Republicans are largely beating Democrats in the construction, real estate, energy and transportation sectors. The support of the Democrats and Hillary Clinton is mainly in electronics, health care, law firms, unions and cultural affairs 5.

Thus, if there was a clear preference on the part of American elites to continue the direction of the administration of Barack Obama, some branches (and therefore their leaders) have openly funded the path of change. Why ?

Clashes and woes of American hegemony   At the end of the Second World War, the United States is the only power of the capitalist world. Europe and Japan are destroyed by bombing. They can not claim any important place in the new order, especially as Germany and the Japanese archipelago are in the camp of the vanquished. Alone in front of this quasi-omnipotence stands a socialist campled by the USSR and where China, then North Korea and North Vietnam come first. At this point, the United States provides half of the world's GDP.

Little by little, Europe and Japan are recovering. Washington is then obsessed by the plan to prohibit the socialist camp to expand. It sets up military alliances around the "Soviet" bloc (like NATO 6), as well as economic zones oriented towards the free market (like the European Economic Community, ancestor of the European Union). In this context, it fosters the emergence of European and Japanese industrial and financial giants capable of competing with American multinationals.

At the same time, countries that have joined the socialist orientation are developing. The USSR becomes the second largest economic power in the world. China is coming out of its continuous impoverishment since the 19th century.

Under these conditions, the United States only represent 27% of world GDP in the 60s. And this share will continue to slip slightly.

The crisis of 1973 plunges the American economy a little more in the turmoil. Especially since, at the same time, the White House is facing major political setbacks: in 1960, in Cuba, the privileged island of the fortunate Americans who spent an idyllic holiday, revolutionaries overthrow the dictator Batista; "Communism" settles some 180 km off the coast of Florida; in 1975, Indochina celebrated its real independence by getting rid of the last pro-American regimes in the region; in 1979, an Islamist revolution chased the shah of Iran, a great ally of Washington. At the same time, the president Richard Nixon must resign for a affair of wiretapping wiretaps 7.

In the 1970s, the Soviet countries, which China has subtracted, are experiencing their first economic difficulties that will lead to their collapse fifteen years later. On the other hand, Beijing is getting rid of the political wing advocating the ideological struggle to excess. The Communist Party is moving towards unprecedented economic development in history, gradually opening the territory to foreign investment.

As a result, the balance of power between nations changes little by little. This is shown in Figure 1.

It compares the real GDP evolution of the main states or regions against the United States. To do this, we have established for each year that they are at the value 100 and we observe at what level the others are placed. A rise in the curve therefore means an economic improvement over the United States, a decline means a deterioration compared to the United States.

 enter image description here

Chart 1. Evolution of real GDP of the European Union, China and Japan compared to the United States 1960-2016 (USA = 100)   Notes: The United States is each year at the value 100. Real GDP is the annual market and monetary output of countries, but eliminating the influence of rising prices or inflation.

As a first step, the European countries and Japan are progressing. Europe rose from 134% in 1960 to 146% in 1974, its relative maximum. The Japanese archipelago is experiencing an even more spectacular rise: from 26% in 1960, it climbed to 53% in 1991.

For its part, China, drowning in ideological debates that necessarily affect growth, progressed slowly until the late 1970s. Then, growth is overdriven: from 4% in 1977, it reaches 56% in 2016. Parallel , the European Union and Japan are beginning to stagnate, losing some of the gains made in previous years.

In 1989 with the fall of the Berlin Wall and in 1991 with the collapse of the USSR, Washington thinks it has definitely won the game against its socialist opponent. Reagan administration official Francis Fukuyama announces the end of the story 8. Conservative columnist Charles Krauthammer states that the world knows the unipolar moment, when a single power, the United States, dominates the planet 9. To show the cost to the state, who dares to question this supremacy, President George H. W. Bush declares war on Iraq, which has just invaded Kuwait.

He announces the advent of a "new international order". No one on the UN Council [10] dares to challenge this step.

But, quickly, the problems pile up for the American empire. Crises occur at a rapid pace and the White House is unable to provide adequate solutions. Each time, the Federal Reserve, the US central bank, floods liquidity US players, even foreign states facing balance of payments difficulties: Mexico in 1995, Thailand, Indonesia and South Korea in 1997 , Brazil in 1998.   How to manage hegemony?   Most American analystsThey know that this situation where the United States dominates the planet is momentary, that it will not last forever. It is anomalous that large countries such as India, China, Brazil, Indonesia do not take a larger share of world production, a proportion more in line with their demographic weight. But it is necessary both to prolong this privileged period and to set up the institutions that will allow the future prosperity of American multinationals.

But in the 1970s, competitiveness problems appeared among American companies.

In a number of traditional sectors, the superiority of the United States is being undermined. In 1989, a team from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) made an edifying statement for a number of fundamental industries it analyzes: US firms do not resist competition from foreign companies, mainly Japanese, who are attacking from below range and then gradually climb; they agree to abandon the lowest level, because there is little profit, but especially volume; but, thanks to this, the Japanese companies go to the assault of the more profitable domains; There are only two possibilities left for American companies: to close their doors or to move to a third world country, or to supply them for parts of the production chain that have become non-lucrative. MIT is studying in detail automotive manufacturing, the chemical sector, civil aviation, consumer electronics, machine tools, semiconductors, computer production, photocopiers and the textile industry [11].

The Reagan administration will react essentially in two branches, the automobile and the semiconductors. In the first, it will impose "voluntary" quotas for imports from the archipelago. This will slow down the Japanese progression, but not stop it. Toyota, Nissan, Honda and others will set up factories in the United States and continue their progression towards the dominance of the sector. For processors, the White House will obtain a reciprocal agreement with Japan, guaranteeing US firms 20% of the Japanese market.

For the rest, nothing will be decided. In areas such as the production of radios, televisions, CD players, PCs, cameras, toys, clothes, the country will produce almost nothing and will depend on foreign material, developed cheaply.

But these relocations will improve the profitability and competitiveness of companies remaining at the forefront of the global economy, ExxonMobil, General Electric, Coca-Cola, Caterpillar, Microsoft, IBM, Apple, Intel, Oracle, Dell, Walmart and then gradually Google (Alphabet), Facebook, Amazon, Yahoo ... Indeed, thanks to this new situation, employees can buy a whole range of products at a lower cost, especially their clothes and household appliances. Under these conditions, their earnings may remain lower and thus benefit these giants who continue to thrive, make bountiful profits and pay disproportionate dividends to their shareholders.

The downside is that you have to import all those products that are no longer made in the United States. Therefore, the trade balance becomes more and more negative and this is not the only effect of oil that must be brought from Mexico, Venezuela or Saudi Arabia. Chart 2 clearly shows the plummeting external accounts of merchandise trade.

enter image description here

Chart 2. Evolution of the US trade balance relative to GDP 1960-2017 (in%)

Source: Calculations based on Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. International Transactions, Balance of Payments.   Until 1976, the trade balance is in surplus or close to zero. Then, it is a constant fall, with periods of punctual improvement. Since the 2007 crisis, the situation has been recovering somewhat, mainly because over-indebted households are reducing their consumption proportionally and thus reducing the purchase of imported products.

The counterpart of this situation is the obligation to have an influx of capital that compensates for the deterioration of the trade balance. In terms of balance of payments, when international trade is in deficit, there are not many solutions: the export of services must compensate; but when the trade deficit reaches 6% of GDP (as in 2005 and 2006), this is rarely enough; it is then necessary to import capital of the same order of magnitude, in the form of credits, investments or stock market investments; if that does not work, the last possibility is the devaluation of the currency. This solution would have catastrophic consequences for the global economy, since a good deal of international business is denominated inollars.

Chart 3 indicates that the natural choice was the arrival of capital needed to offset the trade deficit and avoid the fall of the US dollar.

enter image description here

Chart 3. Evolution of the capital balance relative to US GDP 1960-2016 (in%)   Note: The capital balance presents a positive inflow of capital (credits, investments or investments) and negatively the exit of such capital. The balance is the balance between what comes in and what goes out.

Diagram 3 is the exact opposite of the previous one. The capital injection compensates for the trade deficit. Until 2006, it is the foreign investments on the American stock exchanges which increase massively. But the subprime crisis [12] causes a crash on Wall Street and NASDAQ [13]. In these conditions, foreign investors lose confidence in the US economy. It is then the central banks (China, Japan, Saudi Arabia ...) that buy treasury bills and that prevent the United States external accounts from causing an even more terrible explosion.

The recession of 2007 has shown the fragile situation in which Washington (and New York) is located and its increased dependence on other states. If they decide not to intervene, they certainly cause a global economic cataclysm, but they also cause the ruin of the US economy. We are far from the absolute supremacy shown by the conservative elite in the early 1990s, the fall of the Soviet system.

How, under these conditions, can we continue to ensure American hegemony? The ruling class across the Atlantic is divided. In general, Democrats [14] believe that economic strength must be restored and more American citizens should benefit. We can continue the path of free trade that allows leading multinationals to sell all over the world and reap tremendous profits. But social redistribution mechanisms must also be devised to avoid an excessive gap in wealth between people, which could lead to undesirable social conflicts.

On the contrary, the majority of Republicans think that the social situation is not a priority. Above all, it is necessary to support economic development with a military potential that can drive back foreign competitors and that can provide security protection to smaller countries.

In this way, since the 1980s, Republican presidents have greatly increased the public debt. They want to increase the military budget by limiting social spending. But this decline is more difficult to obtain because there is resistance from workers, citizens and civil servants.

As a result, budget deficits are accumulating and public debt is climbing.

On the other hand, the democratic presidents try to constrain this debt. They moderate the expenses by attacking in particular what the Department of Defense receives. Chart 4 presents this situation.

enter image description here 

Chart 4. US Department of Defense Official Spending Trend Relative to US 1950-2017 GDP (%)

Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, GDP and the National Income and Product Account (NIPA) Historical Tables for GDP and Office of Management and Budget, Historical Tables, Table 3.1. Outlays by Superfunction and Function: 1940-2023: https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/hist03z1-fy2019.xlsx, for Department of Defense Expenditures

There is a general downward trend as the United States does not face aggression. Military spending increased in proportion to GDP with the Korean War in the early 1950s and then with Vietnam in the late 1960s.

Then the budget rises with Ronald Reagan's star wars (Star Wars), to fall back to the lowest with Bill Clinton. Once again, it is going up again with operations in Afghanistan, then in Iraq. Finally, Barack Obama restricts military spending to the chagrin of Republicans.

The rise of the extreme right   In order to follow the evolution of the ideas, we have drawn up a table (Table 2) showing all the American presidents, with their political color, since the Second World War.

enter image description here   Table 2. List of Presidents of the United States since 1945

Truman takes over the government following the death of Franklin Roosevelt, Lyndon Johnson after the assassination of John Kennedy and Gerald Ford after the resignation of Richard Nixon following the Watergate.

Two parties share the presidencies: Republicans and Democrats. Initially, the differences are quite small and fluctuating. Abraham Lincoln, who abolishes the escwash after the American Civil War (1861-1865), is Republican. Franklin Roosevelt, who sets up the New Deal to face the great crisis of the 1930s, is a democrat.

But, gradually, after the Second World War, the conservative forces take possession of the republican party. Strangely, this is linked to a decision made during the presidency of Lyndon Johnson, but prepared during the tenure of John Kennedy; the adoption in 1965 of the Voting Rights Act [15], that is, non-discrimination in elections.

But at this time, Democrats have a strong influence in the southern states of the United States, formerly slavers. To give African Americans the right to vote and to be elected was not to please some of them. Notably Scoop Jackson and Pat Moynihan oppose this new path. The first recruits assistants who will be of paramount importance in American politics: Richard Perle, Paul Wolfowitz, Doug Feith and Frank Gaffney. Democrats with a retrograde, militaristic view will later become the group of neoconservatives.

This group will bring to the right new ideological conceptions that will shape the debates in the mid-1970s. In particular, he created the Coalition for a Democratic Majority (CDM) [16] in December 1972. Inspired by the theses of the Former President (Democrat) Woodrow Wilson, who gave birth in 1919 to the League of Nations, he develops a very particular vision: "Five main aspects appear in the neoconservative vision of the CDM: the defense of democracy; human rights ; the assertion of American military power; support for Israel; finally, distance from the UN multilateral system "[17]. These are recurring themes that the extreme right will take over.

Another event will shape the ideological spectrum of the United States: the unsuccessful candidacy of Barry Goldwater in the 1964 presidential election against Lyndon Johnson. It is the first to openly defend positions of extreme right, anti-union and anti-communist. But it fails totally. Conservative forces analyze this defeat and conclude that they need to be more structured. In the 1970s, thanks to the help of financial reactionaries, they created organizations, foundations, research centers, where they refine their arguments. Thus, the American Enterprise Institute, founded in 1943, took off from 1971. The Heritage Foundation appeared in 1973. The Cato Institute, libertarian think tank, arose in 1974. It is these institutions that, with the rise of the evangelists , will allow the arrival of Ronald Reagan to power. Many Democrats, from the ranks of Scoop Jackson's aides and advisers, and Pat Moynihan, join the Republican team.

In 1981, all this small world meets in a large convention, the Council for National Policy (CNP) [18], which wants to both lead the conservative movement and compete or even take the place of the Council of Foreign Relations (CFR) [19], which brings together the American establishment to discuss and define the country's foreign policy. This last project will not take. From now on, the NPC meets behind closed doors and the names of its members are not revealed. Nevertheless, the New York Times calls it "the little-known club of a few hundred of the country's most powerful conservatives" [20].

But the Reagan presidency disappoints the most intransigent of the current, especially when with the perestroika launched from 1985 by Mikhael Gorbachev, the United States renews "friendly" contacts with the USSR. Thus, a former Scoop Jackson assistant and senior Pentagon official [21] from 1983 to 1987, Frank Gaffney, was removed from office by Defense Secretary Frank Carlucci.

He creates the Center for Security Policy (CSP) [22] the following year. The words of this body are not in the lace: it immediately denounces peace agreements between the USSR and the United States. Subsequently, the CSP will stand out for the propagation of conspiracy theories arguing that Islam would dominate the planet, accusing even Barack Obama of being a Muslim who would fool his world as well as Hitler had deceived the French and the British in Munich in 1938 [23]. Note also that Doug Feith is a founding member of CSP. He will even be the chairman of the board. [24]

During the 1990s, the Conservatives did not fray. They accuse George H.W. Bush and Bill Clinton's presidencies of being too soft and not facing the emerging dangers on the planet: terrorism, Iraq, China. They decide to regain control, with the help of Newt Gingrich, the new Speaker of the House from 1995 to 1999 [25]. They are conducting ideological and procedural guerrilla warfare against the Clinton administration, whosefamous case Monica Lewinsky [26].

In 1995, the CIA [27] published a memo stating that the terrorist threat against the United States is "unlikely". The Conservatives are engaged in a fierce battle to change these words to "possibly possible" and thus to create a climate of fear in which they can prosper. It is in this context that two ultra-conservative ideologues, William Kristol [28] and Robert Kagan, founded in 1997 the PNAC or Project for the New American Century ("Project for a New American Century") [29]. It wants to make the 21st century an era of American hegemony as was the twentieth century (according to its promoters).

In a book on politics that should be conducted at the dawn of the twenty-first century, the two doctrinaires write: "The task for the United States in the early 1990s should have been obvious. It was prolonging this extraordinary moment (from the Cold War - ed) and protecting the international system from any threat that might challenge it. This meant, above all, preserving and strengthening the benevolent global hegemony of the United States, which underpinned what President George Bush rightly called a "new world order". The goal of American foreign policy should have been to transform what Charles Krauthammer called a "unipolar moment" into a unipolar era. " [30]

Alongside the two intellectuals, among the signatories to the PNAC's founding charter are Dick Cheney, Lewis Libby, Donald Rumsfeld, Paul Wolfowitz, Francis Fukuyama, the author of the "End of History", Jeb Bush and Frank Gaffney. But it is they who will compose the new American administration of George Bush Jr. in 2001, after disputed elections. [31] Dick Cheney will be the powerful Vice President [32], Lewis Libby will be his advisor, Donald Rumsfeld will be the Secretary of Defense, Paul Wolfowitz, his under-secretary, and Doug Feith, then at the CSP, will be the undersecretary to Defense Policy, number three of the Pentagon.

One of the first objectives of the PNAC was to continue the war in Iraq and to get rid of Saddam Hussein definitively [33]. When Doug Feith took the oath before Congress to take office in May 2001, he expressed his willingness to continue the conflict in Mesopotamia. This will surprise and disturb a Democratic parliamentarian, but Republicans can impose their choice and the Conservative will be accepted.

Since the attacks of September 11, the Department of Defense proposes to attack Baghdad in retaliation. It is Secretary of State Colin Powell who will divert the government from this goal by pinning Afghanistan instead. But the Iraqi obsession will persevere and - irony of history - the conservatives will impose on Colin Powell to defend the attack against Saddam Hussein at the UN, from "evidence" that today everyone knows false and false.

In September 2001, the Ministry of Defense will present the Quadrennial Defense Review (QDR), which as its name suggests defines for four years US military policy. It is produced by the Deputy Secretary of Defense Policy, that is, Doug Feith. He will repeat the themes put forward by the PNAC: the United States must remain the global hegemonic power for the years, if not the decade to come. In this report and the one that will follow regarding the national security policy, Washington defends the idea of ​​conducting preventive wars [35].

It is interesting to note that Donald Rumsfeld in the introduction to this paper writes: "The Quadrennial Defense Review and the accompanying report were largely completed prior to the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks in the United States. In general, these attacks confirm the strategic direction and planning principles that resulted from this report, particularly when they focused on domestic defense, on surprise, on preparedness to address asymmetric threats [36], the need to develop new concepts of deterrence, the need for a capacity-based strategy and the need to deliberately balance different dimensions of risk. However, the attacks of September 11, 2001 in the United States require us to act more quickly in these directions, even if we are engaged in a war on terror. "[37] The attacks therefore confirm the conservatives in their militaristic, security and even authoritarian vision.

They manage to trigger two so-called preventive wars, one against Afghanistan, the other against Iraq, two sovereign states. The current chaotic situation in the Middle East stems from these haphazard decisions. The Bush Jr. Government Decrees the Patriot Act, an "Anti-Terrorism" Law that Clears the Legal Distinctionbetween investigations by domestic police and those conducted by the secret services. It defines new categories such as enemy combatants or illegal, allowing Washington to place those who correspond to a special camp at Guantanamo, without charge and time limit. It is a zone of lawlessness initiated by the United States.

Of course, these directions have raised the indignation of many people around the world, including Americans. Torture reported in Iraqi prisons by American servicemen has discredited Republican conservatives. In addition, despite the cries of victory of President Bush Jr. just after the success of purely military operations, invasions are gradually becoming human catastrophes and financial sinkholes for the US state. They cost many lives, including those of American soldiers.

After eight years of disastrous outside adventures, voters choose to give the reins of political power to Democrats and Barack Obama. Especially since the economic crisis that breaks out from 2007 shows a greedy and greedy financial sector, without morality as long as there is money to be won. The Republicans, with their very liberal vision of letting the market act, are badly taken. They will begin to take steps to save this world of finance, to the detriment of indebted households and taxpayers.

Barack Obama will represent a hope for change. But this one will be quickly disappointed. The new president extends the Patriot Act several times. Then, in 2015, following the incendiary revelations of Edgar Snowden two years earlier about the NSA's vast listening of communications [39], he replaces the law with the Freedom Act, which is not so good ( Liberty Act, in French), since the main change is to allow wiretaps only after approval by a court of law, that of FISA (US Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Court [40]). ]). As for Guantanamo, despite its promises, in eight years of mandate, Obama has not managed to suspend this camp.

Like the Clinton government, it has not taken American workers out of debt, poorly paid jobs and the misery that many of them live in. In social terms, its main contribution is the establishment of Obamacare, a health insurance system for some 32 million Americans, leaving 23 million citizens without coverage. Although still very incomplete, the Republican right is trying at all costs to dismember repeal this health coverage.

As early as 2008, grassroots activists from the right created the Tea Party for Taxed Enough Already, [41] an openly libertarian movement opposing the rescue of banks by the injunction the state. But their program is the free market and the withdrawal of the state in the economy.

In 2010, in the mid-term elections to renew the 435 seats in the House and 100 in the Senate, the Republicans take the lead. They control the Congress and the Democrats retain the majority in the Senate only of a jump seat. We find ourselves in a situation similar to that faced by Bill Clinton.

If the harassment of the 1990s focused on the escapades of the president, two decades later attacks the origins of Obama.

In 2012, Republicans send Mitt Romney, a "moderate" [42] who acquired a small fortune by participating in the founding of an investment company, Bain Capital, and who was also governor of Massachusetts from 2002 to 2007 , fight Barack Obama in the presidential election. The Conservatives will catch up four years later. Several candidates compete in extreme positions to reduce the taxation of the richest, to return to the financial regulation measures taken during the recent economic crisis, to restrict illegal immigration, to increase the budgets of Defense and National Security ...

The favorite of the extreme right is besides Ted Cruz. It is supported by the Tea Party, less influential than in 2008. It is funded by the Koch brothers, who, at the head of a powerful conglomerate erected from oil, actively support the most conservative and libertarian pretenders [43]. ]. He is also advised by Robert Mercer, a former IBM employee and president of Renaissance Technologies, one of the largest US hedge funds [44]. The latter funds the racist, misogynistic, supremacist media site [45] Breitbart News, created in 2007 by Andrew Breitbart and animated until recently by Steve Bannon. The latter, close to the American extreme right, agrees to participate in the campaign of Ted Cruz.

But this one loses the primary of the republican partylicely face Donald Trump. The Mercers decide to support the candidate chosen by the voters, unlike the Koch. They propose that Steve Bannon become the political leader of the Trump campaign, which he agrees. The collaboration will prove fruitful.

Once elected, the 45th President of the United States receives help from Charles and David Koch. Vice President Mike Pence, another evangelical Christian conservative, homophobic, anti-abortionist and close to the Tea Party, allows rapprochement. This will favor the composition of the new administration from the most conservative forces in the country.

This is evidenced by the choice of the new national security advisor, an influential position on American foreign policy: John Bolton. This one comes from the movement of the neoconservatives. In 1998, he signed the PNAC letter to attack Saddam Hussein's Iraq, addressed to Bill Clinton. He is a fierce supporter of preventive warfare and a fierce opponent of humanitarian missions. He joins the Bush Jr. Administration at the State Department in charge of disarmament issues. It is in this context that he proposes sanctions against Iran and North Korea. In 2005, he became an ambassador to the UN, an institution that he often denigrates. He will resign from this post at the end of 2006, under pressure from Democrats who won the mid-term elections.

This historical journey shows that there is a project that is not always clear and that can be shared only partially between libertarians, neoliberals, neoconservatives, ultraconservatives ... There is a desire to conquer the power to impose its ideas and his vision to American society and the planet.

There are, however, significant differences between libertarians, who advocate full free trade, but a state that is in retreat, if not non-existent, and conservatives, preferring a strong state in military and security matters, to ensure the global hegemony of the United States. Nevertheless, one can observe a disturbing drift in the different successive republican governments.

First, there was Richard Nixon (1969-1974), a staunch anti-communist and a supporter of a strong and authoritarian state. But he had to resign because of the Watergate (see above). Then, the Conservatives elected Ronald Reagan (1981-1989), a former actor who denounced some of his colleagues in the witch hunt of the 1950s and whose administration has promoted the neoliberal policies that the planet suffers so much today. . George W. Bush (2001-2009) pushed the American strategy a little further by authorizing the preventive wars, with immediate application to Afghanistan and Iraq, and the Patriot Act. Now, it's Donald Trump's turn with a conservative cohort at the helm. It is also the first time that an individual who has sympathies for neo-Nazis, in this case, Steve Bannon, joins the American government team [46].

As former Nobel economist Paul Krugman writes: "The nature of the hold that movement conservatism exerts on the Republican Party is easy to summarize: yes Virginia, the great right-wing conspiracy exists. There is a set of tight institutions, ultimately obeying a handful of individuals, who collectively reward the faithful and punish dissenters. These institutions provide resourceful politicians with the resources to win elections, a safe haven in the event of defeat, and lucrative career opportunities after their tenure. They guarantee favorable press coverage for those who follow the party line. They harass and weaken opponents. And they maintain a permanent army of militants and intellectuals "[47].

Military priority   Why did the establishment authorize the election of Donald Trump and did not put all his forces to prevent it, when it undeniably had the means? First, because it is divided on the strategy to follow to remain hegemonic in international relations, as we have already pointed out above. But also because one party believes that the use of force and military means, which far surpass those of other countries, is indispensable in this task.

Since the end of the cold war, the United States has established what their armed force should be to conduct simultaneously and only two wars of medium importance [48]. This is an astonishing position, because after the collapse of the USSR, there is no longer an adversary of comparable size. Some thought that the time had come for the "peace dividend". They must have disillusioned quickly. The Pentagon immediately put things right: there would be no massive reduction in the defense budget.

In addition, he canIt must be paradoxical that the US military forces must correspond to those that allow two simultaneous fights to take place in isolation. However, the United States is at the top of the arms trade around the world, selling mainly to its allies, Israel, Saudi Arabia, the Gulf States ... They pursue objectives sometimes against their neighbors, with the support from Washington. Moreover, since this orientation was defined, the White House has struggled to steer their armed conflicts with the help of other countries, these contributing to the deployment of forces or having to pay the bill.

As a result, despite the end of the cold war, the United States remains largely the leader in military spending, as shown in the following chart and table.

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Chart 5. Trends in military spending in the United States, China, Russia and the European Union 1990-2016 (in billions of 2015 dollars)

Source: SIPRI, Military Expenditure Database, Data for all countries 1949-2016: https://www.sipri.org/sites/default/files/SIPRI-Milex-data-1949-2016.xlsx. Note: Using amounts in 2015 dollars helps neutralize inflation and provide statistics in real terms.

It is observed that the amounts used by the United States actually drop during the 1990s, but rather weakly. They then return strongly upward upon the accession of the Bush Jr. team to power. They decline with the arrival of Obama, to grow again at the end of the period, even before the election of Donald Trump.

Table 3 shows these data as a total percentage of the total amounts spent.

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Table 3. Share of military expenditures of major countries in the world total 1992-2016 (in%)

In 1992, the United States accounted for nearly half of the world's Defense funding. This share goes under 40% in 2000. But with the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, Washington returns to its position of the end of the cold war. The crisis is occurring, we must save the US financial system, essential in the global economic strategy. Barack Obama resolves to reduce military spending.

Nevertheless, the White House's often arrogant way of doing business is not to the taste of the emerging powers, who feel that at one time or another American interests will come into conflict with their own. willingness to develop. They must build or rebuild their armed forces. Thus, China's share is constantly rising in statistics. And Russia, which had reduced its spending in the 1990s, is again spending significant amounts on defense.

This situation worries the Conservatives. They say that economic domination is threatened by new actors and, in this respect, it is difficult to prevent catching up. To annoy him perhaps, to restrain him without doubt, but not to forbid him. Thus, military supremacy and the undisputed political advantage it provides remain, in fact, the main tool for the United States to maintain world hegemony.

This is the reasoning of a whole section of the economy that operates thanks to military orders, especially since the Pentagon can often fund a lot of basic research. These are the sectors that traditionally finance the Republican Party. But there is also a part of the American ruling class that believes that the model of domination, as it has been established since the 1980s, can no longer survive and that military and political force must be used more. This is the breeding ground on which will develop the latest currents of the extreme right, always very active in the media and social networks.

The Conservatives will address, in particular, the fact that current military spending no longer allows states to conduct two medium-sized conflicts on their own. They say Barack Obama's policy has made this option impossible with the budget cuts in the defense sector. And, as they know so well, they have multiplied their ideological assaults.

For example, two military experts from the far-right think tank The Heritage Foundation write: "The (current) army is the smallest since 1940, even though soldiers have to deploy very frequently." [49]

To support this statement, Doug Feith explains, "We were the preponderant military power and our enormous economic strength gave us influence. But during the Obama years, the American influence diminished. ". And he continues calling for another policy: "One of the first things President Trump wants is to rebuild and reaffirm American power." [50] In other words: increase the defense budget.

Mackenzie Eaglen goes onr the American Enterprise Institute (AEI): "Politicians can not disregard the need to have a strong presence in Asia, Europe and the Middle East.

This would mean that US commitments in the Middle East would disappear or they would suddenly become easier or would be a lesser burden for the military. ". He pursues : "

To perpetuate itself as a world power, the United States can never be in a position - as it is now - to have to mobilize the last reserves of its military force for any theater of action. On the contrary, military planners must increase the size of the armed forces by using available resources. US forces must commit to a permanent, permanent presence wherever they can effectively deter threats before they become hostilities. ". [51]

This is an appeal we had heard in the 90s, at the time of the Clinton presidency. The two founders of the PNAC had published a book to this effect and claimed: "Our current threat is the decline of our military strength, our will and our confusion about our role in the world." [52].

All Republican candidates were undoubtedly sensitive to this "alarm call". But the best of them, the one who could beat Hillary Clinton, was undeniably Donald Trump. The others were too close to the establishment, with a rather similar speech. Only Trump could really mobilize the popular electorate and reverse the trend that gave winning Democrats almost every time.

Upon his arrival at the White House, Trump will satisfy the most conservative elites of the country. It will start a deregulation of the economy and finance, which has not yet taken on its full dimension.

It is a question of returning to the Volcker rule of the Dodd-Frank Act, voted to deal with the crisis of 2007-2009. This limits or even prohibits the activities of proprietary investment companies in certain areas. In the months leading up to the recession, several institutions, including Goldman Sachs, were found to offer subprime products to their clients, while they speculated on the collapse of these same assets. There was clearly a conflict of interest. As early as February 3, just days after his inauguration, Donald Trump signed two decrees to challenge the Dodd-Frank Act.

Then, in December 2017, it promulgates a tax reform, which benefits companies, especially those producing in the United States, and the most fortunate Americans. The windfall available to those who need it the most is $ 1.5 trillion over ten years. [53] This represents a transfer of about 8% of GDP to the richest, as recipient firms are likely to pay the surplus to their shareholders and managers.

Finally, the 2018 budget was redefined according to republican priorities, with a rise in the sums allocated to the Defense and National Security departments, to the detriment of social and environmental spending. The goal is to put military spending at 3.3% of GDP in 2020 compared with 3.1% in 2017 [54]. This requires going from $ 590 billion in 2017 to $ 668 billion in 2020.

Under Donald Trump, appointments in the administration of former military and officers take a disproportionate measure. Defense Secretary James Mattis was the commander of CENTCOM, responsible for US military operations in the Middle East, Central Asia and South Asia under Obama's presidency. One might think that the minister in charge of defense is usually an officer. But in the United States (as in other countries), this is rarely the case. More surprisingly, Ryan Zinke, Secretary of State for the Interior, served in the Navy from 1985 to 2008 and retired on that date with the rank of Commander. John Kelly, first secretary of state for Homeland Security and then chief of staff of the White House, is a former retired general. Sonny Perdue, Secretary of State for Agriculture, is a former captain of the US Air Force. This is also the case of Rick Perry, the Secretary of State for Energy.

Overall, the employers can be happy with these measures, even if it remains circumspect on the way Donald Trump intervenes in the debates, through incendiary tweets. Senior corporate officials also access the government. The most emblematic is Rex Tillerson, CEO from 2006 to 2016 of ExxonMobil, the largest oil company in the world, who becomes Secretary of State of the United States [56]. Steven Mnuchin, who worked at Goldman Sachs until 2002, then in several investment companies, is chosen to besecretary of the Treasury [57]. Wilbur Ross was at the head of investment companies, often in charge of buying, then reselling firms sometimes in difficulty (including those of Trump), before being appointed to the Commerce. Gary Cohn was number two at Goldman Sachs from 2006 to 2016, when he joined the government team as head of the National Economic Council, which advises the president on economic situations. [58]

For relations with the power, the employers also modify the contact persons. At the powerful Business Roundtable (BRT, the Business Round Table), which brings together more than a hundred presidents or senior leaders of the largest US multinationals, [59] a new president is elected and a new managing director is appointed. The first is Jamie Dimon, the CEO of JP Morgan Chase, the largest US bank. It was part of the Forum Strategy and Politics, set up by the White House [60]. The second is Joshua Bolten, who was White House chief of staff under President Bush Jr. from 2006 to 2009. The bosses had chosen two officials who could easily dialogue with the power in Washington.

The Trump Administration's philosophy is provided by the National Security Strategy Report, published in December 2017. It is based on the expression of American power: "The United States that competes successfully is the best guarantee to prevent conflicts. Just as American weakness invites us to challenge them, their strength and confidence discourage (others) wars and thus promote peace. "[61]

It points to three major opponents who oppose this hegemony: "Three main forces - the revisionist powers of China and Russia, the rogue states of Iran and North Korea and the transnational criminal organizations, especially the jihadist terrorist groups - actively challenge the United States, its allies and partners. [62] Cuba and Venezuela are also mentioned as anachronistic authoritarian regimes, but are considered regional threats [63].

The problem is that with the economic crisis, the Obama administration (which is not explicitly mentioned) has reduced military spending, while its opponents are increasing: "The US military remains the strongest in the world. However, the benefits of the United States diminish as rival states modernize and strengthen their conventional and nuclear forces. [64]

It is therefore necessary, according to this document, to reaffirm American hegemonic power by increasing military capabilities. The report's authors write: "The United States will seek to find, in a position of strength, places of cooperation with its adversaries, ensuring above all that our military power remains unmatched and fully integrated with our allies and all our instruments of power. A powerful army gives our diplomats the opportunity to operate in a position of strength. In this way, together with our allies and partners, we can discourage and, if necessary, defeat aggression against American interests. This will increase the likelihood of managing disputes without violent conflict and preserve the peace. "[65]

The terms of preserving peace should not be misleading. This is a decidedly warlike strategy that the Trump administration has chosen, because the goal is not peace and harmony for everyone, but for American interests, that is to say primarily those of multinationals. .

Increased global tensions   The plan of the conservatives and the extreme right is to reaffirm the absolute primacy of the United States on the planet through the expression of brute force and brutality. This was already the case under the Bush Jr. government. But the consequences had been so catastrophic that it had to go through a Democratic interlude. Today, this reactionary current has taken over the reins and imposes its orientations to the world.

But that will not go without trouble. The first problem is the rise in public debt. This is already close to 101% of GDP in 2017. However, according to the Trump administration's budget planning, based on a rather optimistic average annual GDP growth of 4.2%, the deficit of Federal state is expected to increase from 3.5% in 2017 to 4.5% in 2020 [66]. As a result, public debt is expected to rise by nearly 5 percent of GDP, according to these forecasts.

Then the trade policy is reversed. The United States, whose multinationals largely benefit from the global openness system, wants to levy customs taxes on the products of so-called predatory countries (such as China). In other words, they are looking for butter and pudding.

In 2017, the trade deficital was $ 811 billion, or about 4.2% of US GDP.

But, it is due both to the import of raw materials indispensable for the development of the country, and of ordinary goods supplied at a low price by Third World nations. These are no longer produced in the United States. It is therefore unthinkable that the negative balance of the trade balance is really resolved.

In addition, these commodities delivered to low-wage employees allow large companies to pay less for their workers, as explained above. If tariffs are levied, this will mean that the goods will be sold at a higher price and that the wages of the employees will normally have to be raised. Not to mention that some sectors rely heavily on these inexpensive imports. Disputes and social conflicts are likely to increase in the United States.

Finally, the countries targeted by the Trump administration can carry out reprisals of the same type, that is to say, tax the American products too. It is clear that, in this case, the commercial war launched by Washington, damaging in itself, could have political, diplomatic or even military consequences.

 

Notes:

1 The name generally given to the New York Stock Exchange.

2 The Apprentice, broadcast on the national channel NBC.

3 The libertarian ideology, which is especially present in the United States, is an economic-political vision where there would be only small individual owners, with hardly any state (or for very limited sovereign functions) . The main followers of this design are Milton Friedman and Friedrich von Hayek.

4 OpenSecrets.org, 2016 Presidential Race: http://www.opensecrets.org/pres16/.

5 Hence Hollywood's strong support for Hillary Clinton.

6 North Atlantic Treaty Organization, which originally includes the United States, Canada and the most important Western European countries (West Germany joined the association in 1955) .

7 What has been called the Watergate affair.

8 Francis Fukuyama, The End of History and the Last Man, Editions Flammarion, Paris, 1992. He will come back later on this diagnosis.

9 Charles Krauthammer, "The Unipolar Moment," Foreign Affairs, Volume 70, No. 1, 1990.

[10] United Nations.

[11] Michael Dertouzos, Richard Lester, Robert Solow, Made in America, InterEditions, Paris, 1990.

[12] These mortgages were granted to households that were unable to repay them.

[13] The Stock Exchange of technology stocks like Microsoft, Facebook, eBay, Yahoo ...

[14] We are dealing here only with the policy followed by the party leadership and we neglect the effect that Bernie Sanders introduced into this movement, with a campaign claiming a kind of democratic socialism.

[15] Voting Rights Act.

[16] Coalition for a Democratic Majority.

[17] Justin Vaïsse, History of Neoconservatism in the United States, Editions Odile Jacob, Paris, 2008, p.150.

[18] Literally the Council for a National Policy.

[19] The Council for Foreign Relations. The CFR publishes the prestigious journal Foreign Affairs.

[20] The New York Times, August 28, 2004: http://www.nytimes.com/2004/08/28/us/2004-campaign-conservatives-club-most-powerful-gathers-strictest-privacy.html.

[21] The name given to the Ministry of Defense because of its shape.

[22] The center for a security policy.

[23] The Huffington Post, December 19, 2016.

[24] Among the founding members of this association are Richard Perle, Jeane Kirkpatrick, ambassador to the United Nations between 1981 and 1985, Edwin Feulner, founder of Heritage Foundation, Edward Teller, father of the H bomb or hydrogen bomb, and James Woolsey, director of the CIA between 1993 and 1995.

[25] Two years after the appointment of Bill Clinton as president, the Republicans take a large electoral victory to the renewal of the House at mid-term (of the President). They become the majority for the first time since 1952. Newt Gingrich is a climateosceptic, an opponent of the Palestinians and a supporter of creationism, the current affirming the foundation of the world by a god, opposing the theory of evolution, admitted in the scientific community. In 2016, he brings his favors to Donald Trump.

[26] In short, this young businesswoman had sex with Bill Clinton's president. Initially, this one denied. But a president can not lie under oath. Republicans have tried to condemn him and dismiss him on this basis.

[27] The Central Intelligence Agency (or Central Intelligence Agency) represents the US secret service since 1947.

[28] William Kristol is the son of Irving Kristol (1920-2009), considered the initiator of the neoconservative movement. These are usually people from the Democratic Party ore the American left and who have gone to the extreme right.

[29] The PNAC will be under in 2006. On the one hand, by that date, it will have accomplished its mission largely. On the other hand, the American Enterprise Institute, more usually specialized in economic issues, will resume the militaristic and security themes of the association.

[30] Robert Kagan and William Kristol, "Introduction: National Interest and Global Responsibility," in Robert Kagan and William Kristol, Present Dangers. Crisis and Opportunity in American Foreign and Defense Policy, Encounter Books, San Francisco, 2000, p.6.

[31] At that time, the two candidates, Al Gore and George Bush, were neck and neck. Votes have been recounted several times. Finally, it was the Supreme Court, where the Conservatives were in the majority, who finally decided to give Bush the victory, while Gore had a higher total vote.

[32] Normally, in the United States, the title and role of the vice-president are purely honorary. But Dick Cheney will completely change this situation. He will begin his term by writing a report on the essential nature of the energy sector for the United States. This former Secretary of Defense, under Bush Sr., was from 1995 to 2000 executive chairman of Halliburton, a US multinational oil and gas services company.

[33] In the first Iraq war in 1991, President George H. W. Bush stopped hostilities after the "liberation" of Kuwait and the end of Iraqi military threats. The Conservatives blame the administration for not having gone to Baghdad to overthrow Saddam Hussein.

[34] The American equivalent of the Minister of Foreign Affairs.

[35] A war even before the opponent triggers it. This is a highly questionable conception, because the potential threat (which can be imaginary enough) serves as a reason to provoke hostilities.

[36] US strategists define their military situation in terms of asymmetric threats. Since, according to them, there is no adversary to their size and nobody dares to confront them too openly, the major risk, they say, comes from non-state forces, well organized, very mobile and drowned in populations. In this way, these forces can strike with impunity the United States or their allies and these can not fight back, since they do not have to do to a hostile state.

[37] Quadrennial Defense Review Report, 30 September 2001, p.

[38] This camp is located in the bay of the same name south of the Cuban island. It was granted in 1898 in the United States following the Spanish-American war that liberates Cuba from Spanish colonization. Normally, Washington pays rent for this possession, but Fidel Castro refuses it. In 1994, the US government of the day decided to found a detention center for Haitians accused of the military coup of September 1991. This is where after September 2001 the so-called terrorists are gathered.

[39] The National Security Agency is a department of the Defense Department in charge of telephone, electronic and computer intelligence.

[40] Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Court or also FISC in English.

[41] The Tea Party title also refers to an event of the war of independence. In 1773, the British Crown on which the American colonies depended decided to heavily tax tea from China to pay its huge debts. The American colonists refused to receive this tea, which was considered too expensive, and in Boston they threw the shipments of the precious liquid arriving by ship overboard. This symbolic act took the name of Boston Tea Party and prelude to the war of independence (1775-1783).

[42] In the Republican Party, he presents himself as a fierce opponent of Donald Trump.

[43] They are among the most important financiers of the Cato Institute. But they also support Marco Rubio and Rand Paul.

[44] A hedge fund is a hedge fund that, in general, conducts short-term financial activities.

[45] The supremacists are supporters of the "racial" superiority of whites over other ethnicities.

[46] Although he was removed from office on August 18, 2017, following the events in Charlottesville, which resulted in the death of a young civil rights activist. While Heather Heyer was murdered by a neo-Nazi who voluntarily crushed him with a car, Steve Bannon is responsible for President Donald Trump's first statement that the violence came from both sides, as well as supporters of the extreme right as antifascists.

[47] Paul Krugman, The America We Want, Editions Flammarion, Paris, 2008, p.197. It alludes to a famous 1897 editorial published in the New York Sun whose title was: "Yes, Virginia, theSanta Claus exists ".

[48] ​​A war of great importance, even global, is not envisaged, because there is more opponent of the same size as the United States, according to the opinion of the American strategists.

[49] Thomas Spoehr and Rachel Zissimos, "Preventing a Defense Crisis: The 2018 National Defense Authorization Act Must Begin to Restore US Military Strength," The Heritage Foundation, Backgrounder, p.2.

[50] Doug Feith, "Reflections on US Military Policy," The Brown Journal of World Affairs, Fall / Winter 2017, p.1.

[51] Mackenzie Eaglen, "Recommendations for a Future National Defense Strategy," American Enterprise Institute, November 30, 2017, p.3

[52] Robert Kagan and William Kristol, op. cit., p.

[53] The Echoes, December 26, 2017.

[54] Office of Management and Budget, An American Budget, Fiscal Year 2019, US. Government Publishing Office, Washington, 2018, p.123.

[55] This is a basic position directly attached to the president.

[56] He was removed from office by Trump on March 13, 2018 for divergence of opinion and replaced by CIA Director Mike Pompeo.

[57] The Minister of Finance.

[58] Gary Cohn resigns on March 6, 2018 to oppose the "protectionist" orientation of US trade policy.

[59] This association created in 1972 will inspire the founding in Europe of the Round Table of European Industrialists, which is one of the most influential lobbies on the orientations of the European Union.

[60] He resigned following Trump's statements after the Charlottesville assassination. Then, the president dissolves the organ.

[61] National Security Strategy of the United States of America, December 2017, p.3.

[62] National Security Strategy of the United States of America, December 2017, p.25.

[63] National Security Strategy of the United States of America, December 2017, p.51.

[64] National Security Strategy of the United States of America, December 2017, p.3.

[65] National Security Strategy of the United States of America, December 2017, p.26.

[66] Office of Management and Budget, op. cit., p.118.

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50 business ideas to launch in the next few years part 10

46. ​​Artificial intelligence to mobilize staff

Retain and motivate its employees: a market estimated at 74 billion francs worldwide. The Indian start-up UnderstandBetter has positioned itself by developing a platform to probe the motivation of employees. Their answers are then evaluated by an artificial intelligence, so as to set up an action plan within the company to improve relations between peers.

Cyril Déléaval: "Any initiative that can improve the links between employers and employees is good to take. The challenge for adaptation in Switzerland is that we are dealing with a rather traditional market. Hence the importance of making prototypes or functional models, even using human wisdom before resorting to artificial intelligence, which would test the idea at lower cost.

47. Recruiting candidates who are not

At the time of the shortage of engineers, the French start-up HireSweet relies on a solution that analyzes publicly available data on specialized platforms like GitHub or Stack Overflow to find talented IT professionals. A way to limit the tedious aspect of recruitment and find faster the rare pearls for the benefit of customers.

Cyril Déléaval: "It's an interesting idea, because bad recruitment is often expensive for the company. Especially since there is a real problem of manpower for SMEs who have to compete with giants like Google to recruit computer scientists. However, we must study the legality of the use of these public data, which are supposed to belong to the users. "

48. Showcase advertising campaign

The company Message in a Window proposes to organize targeted communication campaigns in French shop windows. With a network of 40,000 banners, more than 100,000 storefronts, the start-up boasts a strong commercial effect of its approach. Some products put on sale are subsequently offered for sale by the advertisers. Sensors make it possible to calculate the audience of the campaigns.

Cyril Déléaval: "It's an interesting idea because it's surfing in a changing media and advertising market! Swiss billboard legislation will soon change. This will be a point to check. The challenge will be to get enough attention from passersby, because humans are still developing more filters in the face of advertising. It is therefore necessary to know how to adapt in the long term. The digital component offers the advantage of being able to test the idea quite directly. "

49. Teleconseil for sick children

Many parents visit online forums when their child gets sick. However, the advice contained there is often anxiety-provoking and unsuitable for specific situations. The French entrepreneur Fanny Renoux therefore founded DoudouCare. This website allows parents to ask questions via SMS or e-mail. They receive a personalized written answer. within twenty-four hours. The site collaborates with about thirty specialists: nurse nurses, child psychologists or osteopaths. The service is not free - a consultation costs 5,90 euros. Preferential formulas also exist, like a pack of 10 questions valid for 50 euros, for example.

Markus Binggeli: "The business model seems solid to me, because every exchange on DoudouCare is monetarized. Swiss people easily consult Google when they want more information about an illness. A professional and reliable online service can therefore quite find a clientele in our market. However, it is essential to focus on transparency to create a climate of trust: who are the specialists who give me the advice? What have been the experiences of other customers? "

50. A support for the little travelers   In France, Kudygo relies on a network of 40,000 certified child carers. © istockphoto Parents who can not accompany their children on bus, train or plane trips wish to see them well accompanied. To find a companion, they can use the French service Kidygo (available as a website and mobile application). The service relies on a network of more than 40,000 certified guides. In general, these are people with experiences in babysitting or childcare professionals. Parents enter their child's path (s) into the site's search engine and see the names of potential companions who wish to travel the same route. Then, the parents take charge of the ticket of the accompanying person. Kidygo receives a commission on this transaction. The start-up also pays 49 euros a year for its certificate giving the right to accompany children.

Markus Binggeli: "Kidygo proposes a business model based on two axes, which represents a strength. Faced with the arrival of potential competitors in the market, the start-up could resist more easily. On the other hand, this service lacks a little transparency. As a parent, we want to know more about the criteria for obtaining the certificate of accompaniment. I also have doubts about the feasibility of the service in Switzerland. Compared to France, the journeys here are shorter. It's easier for parents to go back and forth, even if the kids want to visit distant grandparents. "

50 business ideas to launch in the next few years part 9

41. 3D printing for industrialists

Thanks to its state-of-the-art equipment, TheFabLab enables manufacturers to print prototypes of their new products quickly and at a better price. The Italian structure offers designers to accompany customer requests, contrary to the traditional offer where processes are more artisanal. The start-up also offers training in the field of digital manufacturing, the Internet of Things and robotics.

Frank Gerritzen: "3D printing has a bright future. And not all SMEs will be able to afford high performance printers. So in itself, it's a great attempt, but one that is subject to stiff competition because nothing prevents a competitor from doing the same thing, cheaper, faster ... It's up to whoever will occupy the market the fastest . The company needs significant capital to deploy quickly, and aggressive marketing. "

42. Recommendation of providers

How to find the best partner locally or internationally? It is from this question that the French start-up PrestaShare was born. At the base simple file Excel, she became today a platform which counts more than 1200 referenced companies.

Raphaël Conz: "This is a very interesting concept, because we are in the recommendation of service providers, on the model of TripAdvisor but in B2B. On the other hand, is there sufficient critical mass in Switzerland? At home, businesses work primarily through word of mouth. Indeed, with our mentality, the small size of our population and our markets, the companies talk to each other and recommend themselves essentially by this means. I would bet more on a platform like this for a B2C model. "

43. Optimizing the management of workers

The construction sector also benefits from digital innovations. Example with the French start-up Site2Site, which has developed an application to simplify the management of a site: link between office and site, staff schedules, analysis of the progress of work.

Raphaël Conz: "The Swiss construction market is well developed and rich in many companies. This application could quite interest these companies. On the face of it, the Swiss clientele may prefer an application of this type rather than an investment in a customized IT tool. "

44. Limit the isolation of seniors

In France, one in four people are over 60 years old. Justine Arnoux, a former nurse, noticed that many seniors were very lonely on a daily basis. That's why she created MyDonger two years ago. This digital platform connects elderly people with "dongers" who want to spend time with them. These moments of sharing include outings, helpers (shopping or other) or visits to the home of the elderly. The service is paid: the retiree pays the "donger" according to an hourly rate agreed in advance by both parties. MyDonger receives a commission of 1.50 euro on each transaction. For now, the service has more than 500 "dongers".

Patrick Albert: "The silver economy is a promising market. Especially since the aging of our Western societies will continue. MyDonger is for me to an elderly population, but rather connected, which is found more in large cities. To also benefit older people who are less connected, I think it would be necessary to combine such a service with already existing volunteer structures. This type of collaboration would qualify the somewhat monetary side of MyDonger. As far as the business model itself is concerned, I think we need to reach a very large base of participants in order to hope to make a profit. "

45. Biodegradable toothbrushes

The Swiss consume more than 20 million toothbrushes a year. Either as much, or almost, pieces of plastic that land in the trash. Companies are tackling this accumulation of waste by making biodegradable bamboo toothbrushes, a solid and flexible material at a time. The French brand Smiloh is distinguished by its graphic products, colored with a blowtorch, and with the hair infused with the charcoal with the whitening action. It sells for 7.50 euros, mainly in France, especially at Monoprix, and in some organic stores in Switzerland. When are Swiss manufacturers, when the country is among the leaders in the oral market with companies like Trisa and Curaden?

Pascal Bourgier: "In a country that is sensitive to the quality of life and the environment, this kind of product has a good chance of success. Natural materials are in vogue and Swiss consumers are able to absorb the extra costs. Entry barriers, however, seem to me important for a start-up. It should face international competition and take a lot of steps to set up a distribution network. The bet is risky. "

50 business ideas to launch in the next few years part 8

36. One-minute races

The French start-up Jow has developed an application that offers customized weekly menus, with recipes presented in the form of video. Launched in April 2018, this service also makes it possible to automatically convert recipes into a shopping list on a partner's online store, in this case Monoprix. Delivery is included. The application is free, the start-up taking a commission on the shopping cart generated.

Frank Gerritzen: "In the same vein as HelloFresh, delivery less. This is an interesting and well-targeted trend: Consumers want to cook healthy products that have not been processed, but do not want to waste hours in the stores. I think there is a future for this kind of application, but we must keep in mind that there is no intellectual property to defend and that our Migros and Coop will quickly copy the idea ... as soon as it's successful! "

37. Top of the range spices at home   The brand Ankerkraut was born in Germany in 2013. It sells on the internet spices prepared without preservatives or flavor enhancers. The consumer can choose between classic spices or blends presented in a jar with a refined design. The condiments are divided into several categories: those intended for cooking, grilling or baking. Ankerkraut also concocts a whole range of spices intended to be drunk, like a tea.

David Davinroy: "Spices are particularly appreciated by Swiss people who like to cook at home. The bottles are well presented, which would probably encourage consumers to buy. However, it should be taken into account that the consumption of spices is rather slow. The concept could be boosted by offering subscriptions for example. It is also important to consider that e-commerce does not work as well in Switzerland as in other countries. It's an interesting idea, but one that I think will benefit from being combined with an already existing concept. "

38. Creating B2B podcasts

Content productions in the form of podcasts are multiplying. The American company Sweet Fish Media demonstrates that a podcast can also be used as a promotional tool for potential customers. The company promises time and efficiency by creating custom podcasts.

Frank Gerritzen: "Amortizing the production of a podcast on a very small number of customers is a challenge, it should at least attack the European market. That said, an approach by another form of media is interesting. It is important to know the preferred communication channel of your customers and their ability to take the time to listen. The density of information on a channel such as listening is not at all the same as in writing, and time is what everyone misses ... "

39. Digital tools and wellness tips

Improving the well-being of Londoners is the mission of the Good Thinking digital platform. "From managing your anxiety to meeting like-minded people, whatever your needs, we want to help you find them," says his homepage. The initiative, launched by the City of London and the National Health Service, provides support for people with insomnia, depression, anxiety and stress. To do this, the user chooses one of the four themes and then answers an online questionnaire. On the basis of its answers, the platform will give a top 5 of the best possible supports: other mobile application, link to specific national health services, etc. All solutions proposed by Good Thinking are free for Londoners.

Sandy Wetzel: "This initiative is necessary because it not only provides support for those who are suffering, but it also provides a form of public recognition of these problems. In this sense, such a project in Switzerland would be welcome. However, I regret the lack of depth of the questions and solutions. "

40. Wedding planner online

  A wedding is often an organizational marathon. Between the choice of venue, clothing and menu, many providers must be contacted. The Berlin start-up Foreverly wants to make this task easier. She has created an online platform where brides and grooms can get in touch with more than 4,500 providers. The free service also exists as a mobile application that includes for example a "to do list" and a schedule for the budget. In addition, Foreverly publishes an online magazine that discusses topics around the theme of marriage. The start-up is financed by the advertising space on its website that it sells to service providers. It claims more than 70,000 visitors per month.

Pico Lantini: "It's a service that illustrates the potential of integrated service offerings around a particular moment in life. Beyond the presence of advertisers, valuation strategy already well known for two decades, I think this type of platform can bring very relevant data to long-term service providers - such as insurers, for example . They can find a real interest because they reason in "lifetime value" contacts so established, so in a long-term perspective, and could fund all or part of the platform. In addition, there are about 40,000 weddings every year in Switzerland ... which is a good volume of contacts! "

50 business ideas to launch in the next few years part 7

31. Express repair of cyberattacks

Last year, a third of Swiss SMEs suffered a computer attack, according to a study by the gfs Zurich Institute. A phenomenon that is also observed abroad, and often affects the website. In the United Kingdom, SharkGate offers a service that guarantees the free repair in one hour of a website, in exchange for a subscription to a computer protection.

Caroline Coquerel: "SharkGate combines a very interesting approach and diverse facets of our ecosystem: collective intelligence and global collaboration, new technologies and artificial intelligence, analogy with the human immune defense mode and business model innovation. In Switzerland and at Fongit, such a project would certainly find collaborations and technologies that would be useful for this activity. "

32. On-site bicycle maintenance

  An interesting service for electric bikes. © DR Established in France, Cyclofix offers a cycle repair service that travels to users. Favoring soft mobility, the offer includes the change of the inner tube in the event of a puncture, the adjustment of brakes and speeds or a complete overhaul of the equipment. Equally competent on e-bikes, the company sends its repairers on request to Paris, Strasbourg, Bordeaux, Grenoble, Lille and Lyon. These support services can also be requested via a mobile application.

Jörg Beckmann: "In my opinion it would be interesting to specialize in assistance for e-bikes. With their engine, these machines require a new type of maintenance. Another track to follow in connection with this idea: the bike sharing, because the purchase of an electric bike remains quite expensive.

33. Embedded and connected advertising

Advertising is available on all media, and even on water bottles. The French start-up Ads On Board aims to connect advertisers and users of taxis, VTC and shuttles. To do this, the company distributes bottles with QR codes or advertising.

Frank Gerritzen: "You can see advertising on the backs of chairlifts, cable car towers and aircraft seats, why not on bottled water? It is important to be seen most often and for as long as possible. By cons, the support is not particularly upscale, so does not lend itself to luxury products or services. And if you have to scan the QR code to see what it's about, there's not going to be a lot of trouble for me, let alone the target audience. "

34. The social network of childcare

  Keeping your child for a few hours is often a headache for parents. © DR Keeping your child for a few hours is often a headache for parents. Three Berlin entrepreneurs have found a solution by launching the SitEinander mobile app this year. Thanks to this one, the parents can build a network between them to organize the child care. To ensure the balance between the parents, each guard performed allows to accumulate "points". The latter then serve as good to be able to benefit from a guard. The start-up has just completed a crowdfunding campaign that will enable it to become known throughout Germany (currently, the application is used in Berlin). The service is free - eventually, the start-up will offer premium paid subscriptions to finance itself.

Markus Binggeli: "In Switzerland, many neighbors and families organize themselves via platforms like Facebook or WhatsApp for different types of activities. The advantage of SitEinander is that all interactions concerning childcare are centralized. On the other hand, the Swiss market may be too small for such an application. For this to work, many parents have to choose this system at the expense of other free ones like WhatsApp. "

35. Simplified machine learning

The growing use of artificial intelligence in the business world is causing a shortage of talent. To meet this challenge, the South Korean company XBrain is relying on a turnkey solution that allows neophytes to access the benefits of automated data analysis. Called Daria, the cloud platform is adaptable to different industrial sectors.

Caroline Coquerel: "Given the difficulty of finding expert profiles in these areas and given the strong growing demand, this type of tool could find its audience in a high-tech oriented country such as ours. It is perfectly in line with the emergence of these new tools and applications, allowing non-expert audiences to take ownership of topics that are sometimes perceived as complex. "

50 business ideas to launch in the next few years part 6

26. An intelligent irrigation system

Agriculture uses nearly 70% of the water drawn from groundwater and rivers. To reduce its impact, the Italian start-up Bluetentacles is developing a system that allows crops to be irrigated only when necessary. The solution developed by the company aims to connect existing equipment to artificial intelligence online, which continuously analyzes climate data and soil moisture.

Caroline Coquerel: "This project brings together strong trends in Switzerland too: our concern for an increasingly critical resource in our country and our research to use less and better thanks to new technologies. More and more start-ups are appearing in Switzerland around agritech and foodtech. Such a project will find on our territory at the same time competition, partners and market in strong evolution. "

27. Creating localized videos

In the age of social networks, video communication is still gaining importance, including for SMEs. The American platform SmartShoot surfs this trend via its site which allows to find worldwide a video artist or a professional photographer in a few clicks, and thus order unpublished content at an attractive price.

Caroline Coquerel: "In other areas, projects are developing with similar models, combining global platform and enhancement of local actors, such as Batmaid (household professionals), Buildigo (artisans), MagicTomato (local products delivered on same day). These examples show the usefulness of these global platforms to, on the contrary, promote local businesses and activities. In terms of video or photo offerings, two parallel trends are developing: projects such as this one, to find qualified professionals or ergonomic tools to make high quality videos and content yourself. "

28. Custom dog food

London start-up Tails specializes in creating custom menus for our four-legged friends. The owner of a dog communicates to the company, on his website, the gastronomic preferences and food allergies of his animal. Tails makes him perfectly adapted dishes, delivered home once a month. Food preparations can be changed, on request, at any time. It takes between 12 and 40 francs per month, depending on the complexity of the recipe. Tails also provides advice and features for the health of dogs (care of hair, teeth, etc.).

Hilary Murphy: "Some people view their pet as a family member and spoil it as they would with any other loved one. Americans spend $ 70 billion a year on their pets. In the United States, clothing offers, spa treatments, weddings and pet vacations appear. "

29. Free meal (served with a little pub)

Based in New York, Lunchspread has launched an unprecedented restaurant promotion service: groups of employees can place a free tasting order, pledging to complete a survey. The delivery is accompanied by a presentation of the restaurant.

Raphaël Conz: "This business model - being able to define your profile and receive personalized offers - is interesting, whereas at TripAdvisor, for example, the customer has to search the site for defined evaluation criteria. Yes, why not push an offer for local restaurants to reach a local target audience. Both are winners: for the consumer, it is a system based on his own interest, from his profile, and for the small restaurant, it is direct marketing at lower cost. But this solution should expand and not concern only the geographical area where one has his office, where one takes his lunch break. Because employees are more and more nomadic, they move from city to city. In my opinion, this platform should therefore take into account the nomadism of urban employees. "

30. Poshtel, the upscale youth hostel

  Contraction posh ("chic") and hostel ("hostel"), the concept Poshtel offers a new form of tourist accommodation. The Freehand channel, for example, offers five US cities comfortable rooms and suites, at comfortable prices (between $ 300 and $ 400 a night), while providing a backpacker atmosphere. Intended for a rather young clientele, the establishments put on the program evenings, workshops with local artists, all this combined with a restoration of great chefs and a welcome worthy of the name.

Hilary Murphy: "This type of stay makes it easier to integrate guests into the local community - especially those who are looking for authentic tours - with a focus on entertainment, art and culture. Nevertheless, the success of such an experience requires specific skills to federate groups and give a sense of belonging and authenticity, so dear to younger generations of travelers. "

50 business ideas to launch in the next few years part 5

22. Sell your car in four clicks

The French company EffyCar is committed to selling used vehicles in less than a month. After this lapse of time, if a car is not sold, the company buys it back from the individual who put it on sale. Targeted market: high-end models. To sell your car, the service offered to individuals includes a quote, a free inspection of the car and the management of administrative aspects. For buyers, the vehicle is renovated before being delivered home with a year of assistance and mechanical warranty.

Jörg Beckmann: "Overall, anything that makes life easier for owners and drivers of vehicles is good. This type of service is starting to emerge in Switzerland, the smallest structures that would like to enter this segment must take this into account. But there are of course still places to be taken in this market. "

23. Luxury Smoke Shop

In the United States, the development of the legal cannabis market has given rise to designer stores. © DR With the development of the legal cannabis market, Lazydaze Co. wanted to reinvent the traditional smoky shop, taking inspiration from the design of the American apparel brand Urban Outfitters and the quality of store services like Macy's. The company sells not only legal marijuana, hemp-related accessories or products, but also decorative items and clothing. It also has a space reserved for coffee or hemp tea, with the possibility of smoking. Lazydaze Co. has deployed in several cities in Texas, but also in North Carolina, Ohio, Colorado, Nevada and Australia.

Frank Gerritzen: "We are dealing here with a chain of specialized businesses, whose success depends on the popularity of the product, the size of the market, the location of the stalls and many, many marketing. In itself, there is nothing that prevents such an initiative from succeeding, if not the size of the Swiss market and the popularity of cannabis ... Fashion effect? Remember, twenty-five years ago, there were countless stores selling cell phones. Mobilezone is the only one who really survived today ... "

24. Collaborative enterprise canteen

Chicken tajine, chili con carne or moussaka prepared at home before delivery to the workplace: the start-up foodtech French Avekapeti innovates by making the link between eccentric companies and amateur chefs. Meals, made from fresh produce, are delivered in a few clicks by the individuals themselves. In two years of existence, the company has delivered more than 15,000 meals made by 800 different chefs.

Cyril Déléaval .: "The highlight of this idea is the home-made aspect and the varied meal offer offered to employees of companies on the sidelines, who have access to a limited choice . In terms of challenges, there are the issues of hygiene, delivery and regulation to check. There would be a market study to be done on smaller cities like La Chaux-de-Fonds. "

25. Brewing of custom beers   Which beer lover has not dreamed of creating his own beverage? Rather than cluttering with a brewing kit and experimenting alone at home, it's better to surround yourself with connoisseurs and enjoy a convivial moment. In Paris, the Beer Factory offers workshops to support learners, from the choice of their recipe to the customization of their bottles. They leave with 15 liters of their craft beer. Nothing like to impress his family! It takes 160 euros for two people, the workshop for four hours.

Hilary Murphy: "One can imagine applying this concept to events such as music festivals, sporting events or weddings, with the labeling remaining as a memory of the moment in question. However, the craft beer market is becoming more crowded. This concept can be considered for most customers as a unique experience. The challenge would be to build a sustainable beers business. "